¿Suecia, el gran vencedor?: Las contundentes cifras sobre el coronavirus

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Suecia adoptó una estrategia flexible, que no incluyó una cuarentena obligatoria, para hacer frente a la pandemia de coronavirus
Suecia adoptó una estrategia flexible, que no incluyó una cuarentena obligatoria, para hacer frente a la pandemia de coronavirus Fuente: AFP

Comentar(645)Me gustaCompartir15 de septiembre de 2020  • 03:41

La estrategia que adopto Suecia para combatir el coronavirus  ha despertado vehementes reacciones a favor y en contra. Cuando en marzo, a diferencia de todos los demás países de Europa, se apegó a su plan de larga data y se negó a introducir una cuarentena obligatoria, inmediatamente los ojos del mundo se volvieron hacia el “experimento sueco”.

Las autoridades alentaron el distanciamiento social y recomendaron que las personas mayores y vulnerables se protegieran, pero todas las escuelas para menores de 16 años permanecieron abiertas, al igual que los restaurantes y bares mientras continuaban los eventos de hasta 50 personas.

Tampoco decreto el uso obligatorio del tapabocas y muy poca gente lo utiliza en los supermercados, colectivos y subtes de Estocolmo.

El razonamiento dado por el arquitecto de la estrategia sueca, el epidemiólogo estatal Anders Tegnell, fue considerar la salud pública en general, y solo introducir medidas que fueran sostenibles a largo plazo.

El epidemiólogo estatal y arquitecto de la estrategia sueca contra la pandemia de coronavirus, Anders Tegnell
El epidemiólogo estatal y arquitecto de la estrategia sueca contra la pandemia de coronavirus, Anders Tegnell Fuente: AFP

En un principio, la audaz estrategia parecía haber fracasado. La infección se apoderó rápidamente de la capital sueca, en parte por el gran número de personas que visitaron los Alpes italianos en febrero; y muchas de las grandes residencias de ancianos tuvieron brotes. Ya a finales de abril las muertes per cápita en Suecia superaron drásticamente a las de las vecinas Noruega y Dinamarca, de los cuales mas del 70% se produjo en geriátricos

Sin embargo, seis meses después, la apuesta sueca comienza a dar sus frutos; al tiempo que otros países europeos vaticinan una segunda oleada de la pandemia. Si bien hubo un claro exceso de mortalidad en abril y mayo, desde junio las tasas de mortalidad de Suecia han vuelto a la normalidad. De hecho, desde fines de agosto, los decesos diarios no superan los cuatro y en la última semana solo se reportaron fallecimientos un día, según el sitio Our World in Data.

Y aunque junio vio un aumento en el número de casos nuevos, principalmente entre los jóvenes y principalmente debido al aumento de las pruebas, nunca se tradujo en más hospitalizaciones o muertes. De hecho, el número total de pacientes en cuidados intensivos con Covid-19 en este país de 10 millones de habitantes es actualmente 13.

Las infecciones comenzaron a caer rápidamente en julio y más aún en agosto hasta que se alcanzó el momento decisivo la semana pasada, según informó Evening Standard.

Hoy, Suecia no solo está por debajo del Reino Unido en nuevos casos positivos per cápita, sino que ha caído por debajo de sus vecinos escandinavos, Dinamarca y Noruega, anunciados como “naciones ejemplo” por su acción decisiva, pero que ahora sufren una aceleración de los contagios.

Los esperanzadores resultados de Suecia han suscitado una multiplicidad de teorías en todo el mundo. La densidad de población es diferente, dicen algunos; el alto número de hogares individuales significa que el virus no se propaga, dicen otros; son culturalmente fríos y no tienden a acercarse demasiado, dice otra teoría popular. Pero la posibilidad políticamente explosiva, que las autoridades sanitarias suecas defienden, es que están alcanzando un alto grado de LA LLAMADA INMUNIDAD COLECTIVA O INMUNIDAD DE REBANO  ; en otras palabras, que suficientes personas se han contagiado y ahora son inmunes y por lo tanto actúan como barreras contra la propagación del virus, explicó Evening Standard.

En una entrevista con el periódico The Observer en Londres este mes, Tegnell afirmó que hasta el 30% de la población del país podría ser inmune.

Si esto es cierto, las ramificaciones políticas son difíciles de estimar. Significaría que los encierros y las mascarillas podrían estar extendiendo, en lugar de resolver, la crisis, ya que la damnificación económica será muy difícil de sobrellevar en la mayoría de las regiones del mundo.

Y aunque el PBI sueco cayó un 8% en el segundo trimestre, la contracción fue de las menos intensas de Europa, si se tiene en cuenta los números de las economías de Alemania (-10,1%), Italia (-12,4%), Francia (13,8%) o España (-18,5%).

La Nación.

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